Nov 8, 2024,06:56pm EST
The outcome of federal power in the United States hinges on 24 uncalled House races, as Republicans continue to lead in enough districts to maintain their majority. This would enable the GOP to secure unified control of Congress and the White House, although the final decision on the House of Representatives has yet to be confirmed.
Key Facts
The Associated Press has reported results for 411 of 435 House races since polls closed on Tuesday, showing Republicans with 212 seats and Democrats with 199. Neither party has yet reached the 218-seat threshold needed for a majority.
Currently, 24 races remain uncalled, with Democrats holding leads in 13 and Republicans in 11. The GOP is poised to retain control unless Democrats manage to overtake the vote count in more districts.
The remaining uncalled races span across key battlegrounds in the western U.S. and swing districts, including Arizona, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, Louisiana, Ohio, Maryland, New York, Maine, and Alaska.
Republicans successfully flipped two Pennsylvania districts held by Democratic incumbents and another seat in Michigan. The GOP also leads in Alaska’s Democrat-held seat. Meanwhile, despite flipping seats in New York, Democrats are trailing GOP incumbents in California and Nebraska—key districts they had hoped to win.
Background Context
The House has taken on significant importance for President-elect Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. A Republican majority would grant the party unified control of both legislative chambers and the presidency. Conversely, a Democratic majority would enable the party to act as a counterbalance to Trump’s policy plans.
In 2022, Republicans narrowly secured a House majority with 222 seats, winning competitive districts in Arizona, California, New York, Virginia, and Nebraska. The divided Congress that followed saw reduced legislative productivity, exacerbated by Republican internal conflicts and a slim majority that allowed a few dissenting members to influence legislative outcomes significantly.
Tensions reached a peak in October 2023 when Republicans and Democrats voted to remove then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, an unprecedented event led by Rep. Matt Gaetz, a staunch Trump ally. The upheaval caused a lengthy process to elect a new speaker and slowed legislative progress. In 2023, Congress passed only 27 bills, the lowest number in over a decade, according to The New York Times, citing Bipartisan Policy Center research. The legislative body narrowly avoided multiple government shutdowns during this term.
Key Developments
Rep. Matt Gaetz won reelection in Florida with 66.3% of the vote, defeating Democrat Gay Valimont. His victory marks continued success despite his controversial political maneuvers, including leading the motion to oust McCarthy.
Do Democrats Have a Path to Victory?
Although the odds are slim, Democrats would need to win 19 of the 24 uncalled races. Currently, they lead in only 13, which makes reclaiming the majority unlikely. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged caution in a statement on Thursday, emphasizing that the race isn’t over until all results are in. Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence, writing in a letter that Republicans anticipate retaining the majority. According to the Election Betting Odds tool, which aggregates data from major betting platforms, Republicans have a 96.9% chance of maintaining control.
Historic Election Results
Several races from this election cycle made history. Democrat Sarah McBride won a seat in Delaware, becoming the first openly transgender member of Congress. Republican Julie Fedorchak secured North Dakota’s only House seat, marking the first time a woman has represented the state in the House. Democrat Julie Johnson made history as the first openly gay woman elected to represent Texas. Additionally, Yassamin Ansari, a Democrat from Arizona, became the first Iranian American elected to the U.S. House.
The final outcomes of the remaining House races will play a pivotal role in shaping the future legislative landscape of the United States.