Jul 3, 2024,05:02am EDT
Topline: Betting markets believe that President Joe Biden’s poor performance in last week’s presidential debate has not only severely damaged his chances of defeating former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November elections, but also increased the likelihood of him being replaced on the ballot by his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Key Facts:
- According to the prediction market platform Polymarket, Biden’s likelihood of becoming the Democratic nominee for the November election dropped from a strong 90% on Thursday morning to 49% by early Wednesday.
- After some fluctuations over the weekend, a sharp decline from 78% to 49% occurred on Tuesday, amid internal pushback within the Democratic party.
- As Biden’s chances have fallen, Harris’s odds have increased, rising from 1% before the debate to 35% early Wednesday, according to Polymarket.
- PredictIt, another prediction platform, has given Biden even worse odds, with a 40 cents per share (equating to a 40% chance), putting him on par with Harris—after Biden held steady above 84 cents per share last week before the debate.
- Following the debate, Harris surged ahead of all other potential Democratic nominees on PredictIt’s market, moving from 14 cents a share on Monday to 40 cents on Wednesday, overtaking California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Surprising Fact:
- While PredictIt suggests Biden fell behind Trump in the presidential race in mid-May, his shaky debate performance has convinced bookmakers that Harris has a better chance of winning the November election. As of Wednesday morning, Trump leads with a 58% chance, followed by Harris at 21%, and Biden at 19%.
Big Number:
- 53%. This is the betting market’s prediction of the likelihood that Biden will drop out of the presidential race before the Democratic convention, according to Polymarket.
Tangent:
- Although Harris is the bookmakers’ favorite to replace Biden if he drops out, a Reuters-Ipsos poll indicates that voters believe a different Democratic candidate would have the best chance of beating Trump in November. The survey conducted earlier this week shows former First Lady Michelle Obama as the only candidate comfortably ahead of Trump in a direct matchup. Despite polling 11 points ahead of Trump at 50% to 39%, Obama has repeatedly stated she has no interest in running for president. Meanwhile, Biden and Trump are tied at 40% each in a head-to-head scenario. Additionally, nearly a third of Democratic voters (32%) said Biden should drop out of the race following his debate performance.