📅 Updated: [24th February, 2025] | 🕘 Reading Time: 5 Min 💡 Author: [Global World Citizen] | Published on: GlobalWorldCitizen.com
The European Space Agency (ESA) has officially downgraded asteroid 2024 YR4 as a non-threat, reversing earlier concerns about a potential impact on Earth. Once considered a “city killer”, the asteroid’s probability of collision has now dropped to near zero, easing anxieties worldwide.
What Was the Initial Risk?
Early Predictions Raised Concerns
- Initially, scientists warned that asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike Earth on December 22, 2032, following a projected risk corridor over the Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic, Africa, and South Asia.
- The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and NASA’s JPL Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) first flagged the asteroid on January 29, 2025, estimating a 1.3% chance of impact.
- On February 18, the risk peaked at 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an asteroid of this size, before being adjusted downward the next day to 1.5%.
Final Risk Assessment
- By February 24, 2025, updated ESA data slashed the impact probability to just 0.002% (1 in 50,000 chance).
- The asteroid has now been removed from the ESA and NASA threat watchlists.
2024 YR4 Officially Removed from Impact Hazard List
Torino Scale Downgrade
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale measures potential asteroid threats to Earth:
February 20: Downgraded from Level 3 (“merits attention”) to Level 1 (“normal”). February 24: Further downgraded to Level 0 (“no hazard”), confirming no risk to Earth.
Expert Confirmation
Richard Binzel, an MIT planetary scientist and creator of the Torino Scale, stated:
“Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now been reassigned to Torino Scale Level Zero, as additional tracking of its orbital path reduces its possibility of intersecting the Earth to below the 1-in-1000 threshold.”
His email concluded with the phrase: “That’s Zero, Folks!” 
NASA & ESA Continue Tracking 2024 YR4
James Webb Space Telescope Scheduled to Observe 2024 YR4
- NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will study the asteroid for four hours in March and May 2025 during its Director’s Discretionary Time.
- Using its MIRI infrared instrument, Webb will gather precise data on the asteroid’s size and composition.
Size Adjustments
- Initial estimates placed 2024 YR4’s diameter between 130-300 feet (40-90 meters).
- New observations refine its size to approximately 165 feet (50 meters) in diameter—about the height of a 15-story building.
What’s Next for 2024 YR4?
- Orbital Path: 2024 YR4 completes one full orbit around the Sun every four years.
- Next Close Approach: The asteroid is set to pass near Earth again in December 2028, but no impact risk is predicted.
Is There Still a Threat?
SETI astronomer Franck Marchis reassured the public:
“Given that the probability of impact has been re-evaluated, it’s important to recognize that 2024 YR4 doesn’t pose an existential threat to humanity.”
For now, Earth is safe from this asteroid—but scientists remain vigilant in tracking potential future threats.
Final Thoughts
While 2024 YR4 has been ruled out as a danger, astronomers continue monitoring thousands of Apollo-type asteroids, which orbit near Earth. With advanced detection systems, AI-driven models, and telescopic observations, space agencies worldwide remain on alert for any emerging cosmic threats.
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