Apr 11th 2024
The central puzzle in American politics today revolves around the perceived softness of Joe Biden’s support. Despite numerous theories, spanning from concerns over Biden’s age to fluctuating petrol prices and the Afghanistan withdrawal, pinpointing a definitive explanation remains elusive. Standard polls, typically based on samples of around 1,000 individuals, offer valuable insights, but they often lack the granularity needed to analyze specific demographic groups’ opinions. For instance, delving into the views of Hispanic Protestants on President Biden within these polls yields inconclusive results due to small sample sizes. To address this challenge, we turned to a different approach.
Over the past year, YouGov has surveyed a total of 49,000 eligible American voters. By aggregating their responses, as we have done this week, we gain a more comprehensive understanding of the prevailing dynamics.
Given the entrenched partisanship among American voters and the solidified opinions about the two main candidates, it’s unlikely that many individuals who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 will switch their allegiance to Donald Trump in November, or vice versa. In a closely contested election, swing voters hold significant influence, as they can potentially sway the balance of power between the two sides. However, identifying these elusive swing voters is akin to searching for four-leaf clovers.
Currently, national polls show Biden and Trump in a near tie, with Trump performing slightly better in swing states. Overall, compared to the 2020 election, there has been a two-percentage-point shift in favor of Mr. Trump. This shift can be attributed to two distinct sources.
chart: the economist
The first source comprises individuals who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but now claim to be undecided, supporting a third party, or intending not to vote. This highlights the potential impact of figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose presence on swing state ballots could sway the election outcome. Mr. Kennedy, featured in our profile this week, remains noncommittal on whether Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump would be more detrimental to America. He asserts that his internal polling primarily attracts independent voters, rather than favoring one specific candidate. However, other polls suggest that increased support for third-party candidates has disproportionately harmed Mr. Biden.
The second weakness for Mr. Biden stems from genuine swing voters who have shifted their allegiance to Mr. Trump. Among our extensive sample of 49,000 respondents, only 465 who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 now intend to support Mr. Biden, while 632 Biden-to-Trump voters have emerged. This phenomenon baffles many, particularly those who vividly recall the tumultuous events of Mr. Trump’s presidency and its tumultuous conclusion, along with recent positive job market indicators.
Contrary to the narratives pushed by both Republicans and Democrats, swing voters prioritize different issues. Their concerns do not solely revolve around immigration, democracy defense, climate policy, or abortion. Rather, their top concerns are inflation, which persists, and the economy. Unlike political enthusiasts and staunch partisans, politics plays a less central role in the lives of swing voters. While they may not be well-versed in Mr. Biden’s stances on various policy matters, they keenly feel the pinch of rising egg prices and the escalating cost of commuting to work.
Interestingly, the demographics of swing voters hold some surprises. Those most likely to transition from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump are non-white parents of school-age children. This trend may stem from lingering frustration over prolonged school closures during the pandemic. It also underscores a notable shift: the detachment of race from voting patterns. While this may raise concerns in the short term, potentially increasing the likelihood of Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, it hints at a positive future trajectory. A move towards a multiracial democracy where voting is based on ideas rather than identity is a promising prospect for America’s political landscape.