For an extended period, Ukraine has relied on robust air-defense systems from Western sources to thwart Russian missile attacks, instilling a sense of security among its citizens, particularly in major cities like Kyiv.
However, on Friday, this defense shield revealed vulnerabilities.
In one of the most substantial air offensives of the war, Russia unleashed a barrage of missiles significant enough to overload Ukrainian defenses. Confronted with a sophisticated array of various airborne weapons, the Ukrainian Air Force reported successfully intercepting only 87 out of 122 missiles launched by Moscow, approximately 70% of the total, with all hypersonic missiles and many ballistic missiles evading interception.
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the research group Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, was forthright: “It overwhelmed Ukrainian air defenses,” he said.
Certainly, air defenses are imperfect, and the sheer scale of the barrage played a crucial role in the number of missiles slipping through. However, the bombardment also underscored how Russia has learned effective strategies to circumvent Ukraine’s air defenses and inflict significant damage on the country, as noted by military experts and Ukrainian officials.
For months, Russia had accumulated substantial quantities of high-precision missiles and executed numerous drone waves, seemingly part of a campaign to assess and exploit weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses.
A missile exploding over the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, on Friday.Credit...Gleb Garanich/Reuters
In recent months in Ukraine, the majority of missiles launched by Russia at Kyiv were intercepted before residents could comprehend the imminent threat. However, for Ukrainian citizens away from the front lines, the death and destruction witnessed on Friday in cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Dnipro served as painful reminders of the persistent threat of war.
The strikes on Friday resulted in at least 39 fatalities, around 160 injuries, and significant damage to crucial industrial and military infrastructure, as well as civilian structures like hospitals and schools. These events have raised concerns about Ukraine’s capacity to endure similar attacks in the future. The prolonged war has left Kyiv lacking essential weapons, including antiaircraft missiles, while Moscow continues to expand its arsenal.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, acknowledged the obvious, stating in a social media post on Friday that the aggressor state possesses ample missile stocks, indicating the likelihood of continued attacks.
Following the attack, Ukrainian officials reiterated their appeal to Western allies to expedite the delivery of air-defense weapons to Kyiv. However, political discord, particularly in Washington and increasingly in Europe, has cast doubt on additional aid to Ukraine, including a crucial $50 billion security package that Congress has repeatedly declined to pass.
Repairing damage on Friday from a Russian missile that hit a hospital in Kharkiv, Ukraine.Credit...Laura Boushnak for The New York Times
Amid Russia’s intense air assault on Ukraine last winter, missiles easily targeted military and civilian infrastructure, breaching the then-limited air defenses. A significant focus was on the power grid, causing Ukrainians to endure cold and darkness.
In response, Ukraine’s Western allies began supplying Kyiv with potent air-defense weaponry, including Patriot surface-to-air batteries—one of the most advanced ground-based systems available. The first Patriot battery arrived around April, leading to a noticeable enhancement in Ukraine’s defenses.
By May, Ukraine successfully intercepted approximately 83 percent of Russian missiles, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. On a day when Russia launched 51 missiles, 48 were shot down, showcasing a notable improvement. Data from Rochan Consulting, an analysis group based in Poland, indicated that this high interception rate persisted through December.
In reaction to Ukraine’s improved defenses, Russia appears to have started experimenting with various combinations of air weapons and attack routes to identify the most effective means of breaching these defenses.
As part of these efforts, the Ukrainian military disclosed that Russia utilized inexpensive Shahed attack drones to assess defenses. About a month ago, Russia launched approximately 75 drones in an overnight assault, marking a “record number” at the time, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Taking shelter in a subway station in Kyiv on Friday, waiting for the end of an air-raid alarm.Credit...Sergei Chuzavkov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, revealed on national television this autumn that the use of drones “allows the enemy to draw conclusions about the forces and means in a particular region and take this information into account when planning future attacks.”
An analysis of Russian air attack trajectories by Texty, a Ukrainian publication specializing in data journalism, demonstrated that Russian drones often followed a major southern Ukrainian highway. This strategy presumably helped them blend in with traffic noise, making them less detectable. Additionally, these drones were frequently launched from Crimea. The analysis found instances where drones and missiles were fired from separate locations but targeted the same destination.
Ukrainian officials have expressed concerns, stating their belief that Russia has amassed missiles for an extensive, large-scale winter campaign. As of early November, Russia had accumulated over 800 high-precision missiles, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.
On Friday, Russia seemed to put months of preparation into action. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top commander, reported on social media that the assault commenced with three dozen Shahed drones launched from the north and southeast in the early hours of Friday. Subsequently, bomber jets fired cruise missiles around 5 a.m., followed by ballistic missiles an hour later. Finally, at 6:30 a.m., Russian fighter planes launched five hypersonic Kinzhal missiles—one of the most sophisticated weapons in Russia’s arsenal.
“We saw a large number of missiles,” Ihnat stated on Friday. “The screen was red, the monitors. They were scattered all over Ukraine, flying bypass routes. Some missiles were flying in circles before hitting their targets.”
Ukraine successfully intercepted only the initial wave of cruise missiles fired around 5 a.m. The remaining missiles struck warehouses, weapons factories, and residential buildings, causing casualties and burying people under the rubble.
Smoke in the sky over Kyiv on Friday after the Russian barrage.Credit...Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters
The assault indicated that the preceding Shahed drones might have diverted or facilitated the missile strike against Ukrainian air defenses, as suggested by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group.
Another potential factor in the missiles’ evasion of Ukrainian air defenses could be the use of decoys. Unverified social media videos displayed what appeared to be a Russian cruise missile deploying flares, commonly used by combat aircraft to confuse air defenses.
According to Serhii Kuzan of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Russia’s Friday attack highlighted Ukraine’s insufficient equipment to thwart large, coordinated barrages. In contrast, Kuzan cautioned that Russia possesses adequate resources to execute several more attacks like the recent one and opined that Moscow is likely already preparing for the next assault.