September 30, 2024
When an Iranian consulate building was destroyed in Syria in April, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to punish Israel. This set off a large-scale, yet predictable assault, avoiding full-scale war.
Three months later, the military chief of the Iran-backed Hezbollah and the political leader of Hamas were killed within hours of each other, yet this did not trigger the regional conflict many anticipated.
Israel’s recent assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut marked a significant blow but is still not expected to lead to direct war with Iran. Instead, Iran is likely to focus on rebuilding Hezbollah in Lebanon and maintaining its proxy networks, according to insights from current and former US and Middle East government officials and regional experts.
Despite Iran’s public rhetoric about a strong “axis of resistance,” its actual strategic position is more vulnerable, with limited options for escalation, informed by insights from a source familiar with US thinking.
The situation could become more unpredictable depending on Israel’s actions, especially with the US distracted by its presidential election, suggested by an Arab official. The recent assassination was preceded by attacks targeting Hezbollah’s communication systems.
Iran is expected to measure its response carefully, avoiding a conflict it cannot win, emphasized by Dina Esfandiary of the International Crisis Group. Early signals suggest Iran will maintain the restraint it has shown in past provocations by Israel.
This restraint is partly due to Israel’s superior military capabilities and the US’s strategic deployment in the region to deter significant attacks against its ally, as noted by Mohammad Javad Zarif, an advisor to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Khamenei’s response highlighted Hezbollah’s capability to recover and continue influencing the region’s future, despite the loss of Nasrallah.
In Lebanon, Iran’s immediate priority is to preserve Hezbollah’s capabilities, as analyzed by Vali Nasr, a former senior advisor to the US State Department. The broader goal for Iran is deterrence, not escalation, aligning with their strategic interest in avoiding a larger war.
Iran’s vulnerabilities have been highlighted by recent attacks on its allies and the unexpected death of former President Ebrahim Raisi, which has led to political shifts within Iran.
The killing of Nasrallah, a significant figure akin to the loss of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, underscores the challenges Iran faces in maintaining its influence through proxy groups.
Iran is likely to focus on transferring resources through allies Syria and Iraq to bolster Hezbollah, as indicated by a source familiar with military movements in the region.
The focus will be on guerrilla tactics and strategic patience, avoiding direct confrontation with Israel, which continues to pressure Iran militarily, concluded Barbara Slavin of the Stimson Center.
This cautious approach aims to maintain Iran’s regional influence while avoiding actions that could lead to severe retaliation or undermine its strategic objectives.