Several hours’ drive east of Riga, amidst a wintry landscape adorned with forests, fields, and frozen lakes, travelers encounter bilingual signs in Latvian and English, signaling their entry into “Borderland.” Prohibited from halting and capturing photographs, motorists traverse this region, flanked by watch towers surveilling the border with Russia, delineated by birch and pine trees.
This frontier represents the outer limits of the European Union and NATO’s jurisdiction, fortified with cutting-edge camera and sensor technologies in anticipation of potential breaches by Vladimir Putin’s regime.
Such precautions aren’t unwarranted. Moscow’s recent barrage of warnings has set nerves on edge, particularly for the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which harbor vivid memories of past Russian aggression.
During his pre-election campaigning in January, Putin highlighted Latvia’s treatment of ethnic Russians as a security concern, echoing rhetoric reminiscent of the prelude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Posters at the Estonian border boldly assert: “Russia’s borders – they never end.”
More alarmingly, Russia conducted military exercises in the summer of 2022, featuring simulated attacks on Estonian cities, mere months after its aggression against Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry abstained from commenting on these exercises at the time.
Motorists are made aware that they are entering ‘Borderland.’Photographer: Alan Crawford/Bloomberg
“At us, they point their weapons, input all the data, but refrain from pulling the trigger,” remarked General Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, during an interview at the joint military command headquarters in Tallinn. He draws parallels between these actions and those of “a thug” inciting conflict on the streets, suggesting they are attempting to fabricate a pretext.
Intimidation from Moscow is nothing new to the Baltics, though EU and NATO membership had previously mitigated its impact. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine altered the landscape, casting doubt on the efficacy of the West’s efforts to assist Kyiv while Russia transitions into a war economy without losing public support, thus indicating the emergence of a new threat.
Over the past six months, it has become evident that Russia is capable of producing significantly more ammunition than previously estimated, with General Herem citing a volume of several million shells annually. Additionally, he noted that Russia faces no difficulty in recruiting troops. During a press conference in December, Putin asserted that Russia was enlisting 1,500 volunteers daily.
“Military specialists have harbored no illusions over the past two years, but we were lacking concrete facts,” remarked Herem, who commenced his service in 1992, the year following Estonia’s independence, and is often seen clad in camouflage fatigues. “Now, we can substantiate our instincts with tangible evidence, leaving no room for accusations of warmongering.”
General Martin HeremPhotographer: Valda Kalnina/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
For years, the Baltic countries have been vocal about Russia’s aggressive tendencies, issuing warnings long before Putin initiated his full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Since then, their leaders have been at the forefront of advocating support for Ukraine and enhancing defense capabilities, advancing military hardware acquisitions from missiles to drones while reinforcing border security.
There is little expectation for Putin to launch an immediate attack, particularly as Russia is deeply embroiled in Ukraine and focused on replenishing its military personnel and equipment.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed Western assertions on Jan. 30 that the Baltics, Sweden, and Finland would align with the “special operation” in Ukraine as “absurd.” Putin himself has stated that Russia lacks “reason or interest” in conflict with NATO countries. Last week, despite opposition from Hungary, the EU successfully reached an agreement on a €50 billion ($54 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine.
A demonstration for independence of Lithuania from the Soviet Union in Vilnius in 1989.Source: Getty Images
Baltic officials perceive Putin as increasingly emboldened, potentially entertaining the notion of expanding his imperialistic ambitions. As small former Soviet republics bordering Russian territory with significant Russian-speaking minorities, they fear they could be next in line.
“I see the current situation as a significant temptation for Russia to target Western and NATO countries because they perceive our lack of decisiveness in supporting Ukraine,” remarked Dalia Grybauskaite, who held the Lithuanian presidency for a decade until 2019, after meeting with Putin.
In Latvia’s eastern border region on a frosty January morning, with temperatures plummeting to minus 14 degrees Celsius and the sun casting a brilliant reflection off the snow, locals braced for NATO aerial exercises scheduled for the week.
In the village of Baltinava, Antra Keisa curates an exhibit commemorating the Maslenki incident, a precursor to the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states. Occurring on June 15, 1940, Soviet NKVD troops launched a surprise dawn attack on Latvian border posts, resulting in the deaths of three border guards and two Latvian civilians—a mother and her son.
This marked the onset of overt hostilities, with the Red Army invading Lithuania on the same day, followed by the Soviet annexation of Latvia and Estonia. It was a strategic gain sought by Josef Stalin under the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany the previous year.
The weight of Soviet history looms large in the Baltic states, particularly in villages like Baltinava, situated just seven kilometers from the Russian border, where the Maslenki incident is solemnly remembered.
The German occupation of the Baltics during World War II was brief, spanning from 1941 to 1944, until Soviet forces reclaimed the region. This Soviet presence persisted until 1991, coinciding with the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The Maslenki incident is meticulously outlined at the exhibit, resembling a forensic reconstruction of a crime scene. Initially concealed, the incident surfaced in 1996 when Latvian authorities opened a criminal investigation, five years after the country regained independence.
The significance of the Maslenki exhibit has grown amid Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, drawing visitors previously unaware of the event. “In my youth, none of us were told or knew about such an event,” remarked Keisa. Notably, Russian visitors are absent from the exhibit, she noted.
Keisa recounted her visit to the border post, where guards showcased state-of-the-art electronic surveillance systems. “It’s all so modernized,” she observed beside a scale model depicting the 1940 attack. Today, the border is vigilantly monitored, akin to farmers tending to their fields.
Baltinava, adorned with traditional wooden houses, exudes charm despite some abandoned structures. Situated approximately 7 kilometers (4.4 miles) from the current border, Maslenki now resides within Russian territory. The building housing the exhibit once belonged to a deported lawyer and his family, who never returned from the Soviet Union.
The Estonian Defense Forces during Spring Storm NATO exercises involving US, German, British, French and Polish forces near Tapa, Estonia, in May 2023.Photographer: Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto/Getty Images
The Baltic perspective on Russia, shaped by firsthand experiences, informs their outlook on Putin’s capabilities. Political and military figures in Riga, Vilnius, and Tallinn feel validated for sounding the alarm early, given Russia’s subsequent aggression towards Kyiv.
Now, they issue a renewed caution about their vulnerability and implore the West to take decisive action against Putin. Former Lithuanian President Grybauskaite, speaking from Vilnius via Zoom, labels the hesitation to assist Ukraine as a “significant strategic and tactical error,” foreseeing Putin seizing an opportune moment to act.
According to Grybauskaite, deterrence is no longer viable, emphasizing the urgent need to bolster defenses. “We won’t even have a single day,” she warns, highlighting the narrowness of their territories, which spans only 300 kilometers, where time is measured in hours rather than days or weeks.
While Grybauskaite’s stance on Russia is well-known, similar calls for preparedness have emerged from Norway and Sweden, with the latter moving towards NATO membership like Finland, effectively turning the Baltic Sea into a “NATO lake.”
Estonia, during a recent government bond sale, sought to reassure investors about the Russian threat. However, Markus Villig, CEO of Tallinn-based Bolt Technologies OU, noted investors’ apprehension, while Martin Gauss, CEO of Latvian-owned Air Baltic, lamented increased interest rates demanded on debt.
NATO has responded by reinforcing its presence with battle groups stationed in each Baltic state. Yet, Baltic leaders express frustration that some NATO members fail to grasp the severity of the threat. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas criticized the shortfall in defense spending, despite NATO allies agreeing a decade ago to allocate 2% of GDP to defense. Kallas attributes this reluctance to perceive the threat as distant, contrasting it with the preparedness during the Cold War era. “Now we’re facing a hot war in Europe, and yet, we don’t see the necessary momentum,” Kallas remarked during an interview in Tallinn on Jan. 16.
Kaja KallasPhotographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg
Signs protesting against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine outside the Russian Embassy in Tallinn.Photographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomber
The Baltic states are actively bolstering their defenses, taking proactive measures to enhance their security rather than relying solely on external assistance. They are increasing defense spending and investing in various military capabilities, including air and coastal defense systems, as well as HIMARS rocket launchers. Moreover, they are considering broader conscription measures to strengthen their military forces.
For instance, Estonia emerged as the largest buyer of 155mm artillery shells in the EU over the past year. Additionally, they have plans to construct numerous bunkers along the Russian border, demonstrating their commitment to fortifying their defenses. While Latvia briefly entertained the idea of mining the border area, it ultimately decided against it.
Furthermore, the Baltic states have implemented other initiatives aimed at safeguarding their sovereignty. Latvia has tightened residency criteria for certain Russians, while Estonia took decisive action by expelling the head of the Orthodox church in Tallinn in January due to activities deemed detrimental to the state.
These proactive measures have not gone unnoticed by Moscow, which closely monitors developments in the region. Putin, speaking via Russian state news agency Tass, characterized the events unfolding in Latvia and other Baltic countries as significant and directly impacting Russia’s security interests.
Estonia expelled the head of the Orthodox church in Tallinn in January.Photographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg
While Russia perceives the actions of Baltic governments as a significant national security concern, Western intelligence services estimate that it may take three to five years for Russia to rebuild its military capabilities and potentially pose a threat, assuming a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.
However, General Herem, Estonia’s military commander, holds a more cautious view of Russia’s military readiness.
“Russia is not currently prepared for direct military confrontation with NATO,” he stated. “Although it may not occur immediately, in as little as six months or a year, they could inflict severe damage. They don’t necessarily need to launch a full-scale invasion of major cities like Warsaw, Berlin, or Tallinn; their aggression could take more localized forms.”
Tallinn is haunted by memories of Soviet occupation, evident in the vast memorial dedicated to the victims of communism, which bears 22,000 names, symbolizing only a fraction of those who suffered under Soviet rule. Established in 2018, the memorial underscores the recentness of the Soviet era’s impact.
This historical backdrop intertwines with the present reality in Ukraine, reflected in the proliferation of Ukrainian flags throughout the Estonian capital and across the Baltic region.
Martin VainoPhotographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg
Martin Vaino, curator and head of exhibitions at the Museum of Occupations and Freedom, highlighted the significant solidarity Estonia holds for Ukraine, largely driven by civil society. The museum even established a station for volunteers to create camouflage nets to support Kyiv.
At the museum, discussions between younger and older generations occur, providing insights from those who endured childhoods in Siberia. There are plans for a temporary exhibit focusing on the impact of the Ukrainian war on Estonia.
Over coffee in the purpose-built museum, nestled just up the hill from Freedom Square amid the accumulating snow, Vaino emphasized, “War is not inevitable. However, we must prepare ourselves to win if it comes to that. Moreover, we must strive to prevent war from occurring in the first place.”
A man walks through a vast memorial to the victims of communism carrying 22,000 names in Tallinn, Estonia, on Feb. 1.Photographer: Peter Kollanyi/Bloomberg
In Baltinava, located some 400 kilometers southeast, Antra Keisa, another curator, is accustomed to residing in the border area with Russia, where bilingual restaurant menus and road signs marking the distance to Moscow are commonplace.
While Keisa herself maintains a relatively calm demeanor, her husband has grown more apprehensive since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “He foresaw the attack there,” she remarked. “Now, he predicts there will be war.” Reflecting on their discussions, she added, “I reassure him, saying, ‘Don’t jump to conclusions, there won’t be a war!’ Perhaps I’m overly optimistic—I don’t know.”