Headline: “US Sees Significant Drop in Homicides and Violent Crimes in 2023, Yet Levels Remain Elevated from Pre-Pandemic Era, Finds Council on Criminal Justice Study”
Key Points:
- A study by the Council on Criminal Justice reveals that the United States is on track to experience one of the most substantial annual decreases in homicides and violent crimes in 2023.
- Across 32 major cities with populations exceeding 200,000, homicide rates dropped by 10%, resulting in 515 fewer murders in 2023.
- Prominent cities such as New York (-12%), Los Angeles (-14%), and Chicago (-14%) reported double-digit reductions in homicides, while some, including Washington (30%) and Seattle (12%), saw increases.
- If these trends persist as more data is collected by the FBI, it could mark one of the most significant year-over-year declines in homicides since at least 1960, according to the Council on Criminal Justice.
- Other categories of violent crimes also exhibited declines, with aggravated assaults down 3%, gun assaults decreasing by 7%, and carjackings showing a 5% reduction. However, robberies and domestic violence increased by 2%.
- Despite the improvements, most violent crime rates remain higher than they were in 2019, pre-dating the pandemic and the social unrest of 2020, with homicides still 18% higher than 2019 levels.
- The report acknowledges the complexity of pinpointing a single explanation for the fluctuation in homicide rates since 2019, citing potential factors such as pandemic-related stress, changes in policing practices, strained community-police relations, and reduced social supports.
Contrary Findings:
- The report notes a concerning 29% increase in motor vehicle thefts in 2023, rising by 105% since before the pandemic. The surge is attributed, in part, to thefts of specific car models, such as Kias and Hyundais, which gained notoriety for security flaws.
- The Council’s report highlights that alternative crime measures, such as the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey, indicate a potential rise in violent crimes. While FBI data showed decreases in reported crimes between 2021 and 2022, victimization survey responses suggested an increase in violent crimes like rape, sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault during the same period.
Quotable Insight: “Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year,” emphasizes the report.
Background:
- The report contextualizes the findings, noting that various factors contributed to the surge in homicides during 2020, including the stress of the pandemic, strained community-police relationships post-George Floyd, and criminal justice reforms.
- Council President Adam Gelb highlights that while national-level social and economic forces likely influenced the crime surge in 2020, local factors are now playing a more significant role, leading to variations between cities and crime types.