After months of assurances from senior officials in Ankara, Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership bid finally materialized on January 25th. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed off on Sweden’s accession protocols shortly after his country’s parliament endorsed the agreement. Almost immediately after Erdogan’s signature dried, the United States committed to supplying Turkey with 40 new F-16 fighter jets and upgrading another 79, constituting a deal valued at around $23 billion. Concurrently, the U.S. approved the sale of up to 40 F-35 stealth fighters to Greece.
The timing was deliberate, not coincidental. For over a year, President Erdogan strategically wielded his veto power over NATO’s enlargement to extract concessions from his Western allies. Among these, the sale of F-16s stands out as the most crucial. While Erdogan may not have gained new friends within NATO, he has secured several victories. He successfully persuaded both Sweden and Finland to lift their arms embargoes against Turkey, imposed in 2019 after Turkey’s military intervention against Kurdish insurgents in Syria. Additionally, on January 29th, Canada, another NATO member, announced the resumption of exports of drone parts to Turkey, which had been suspended in 2020.
Mr. Erdogan swiftly approved Finland’s NATO membership in March of last year, but he subjected Sweden to a more complicated process. Under Turkish pressure to take action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a banned Kurdish group, Sweden passed a new terrorism law in 2023, requiring constitutional changes.
Sweden’s NATO accession got caught up in a dispute involving the United States, Turkey, and Greece, another NATO member. After being expelled from the U.S. F-35 program due to its purchase of an air-defense system from Russia, Turkey aimed to acquire new F-16s and upgrade its existing ones. Erdogan urged the U.S. to lift the blockade on the sale, which had been stalled by Congress for several years.
However, the United States also adopted a tough stance. American officials explicitly stated that they would persist in obstructing the F-16 sale unless Mr. Erdogan granted approval for Sweden’s NATO membership. Furthermore, they hinted at proceeding with the sale of F-35s to Greece without waiting for Turkey’s approval, a move that could upset the balance of power between the two neighboring countries. This threat played a crucial role in facilitating the vote, leaving Sweden just a single hurdle shaped like Hungary away from joining the alliance.
The sale of F-16s will not significantly change America’s relationship with Turkey due to ongoing concerns in Washington about Turkey’s human rights record, Erdogan’s support for Hamas, and his reluctance to confront Russia. However, it will contribute to anchoring Turkey in NATO and reinforcing its reliance on American arms manufacturers for spare parts and maintenance. Turkey’s development of its own aircraft, the Kaan, is underway, but it is not expected to be operational for another decade. The F-16s are anticipated to remain in service until the late 2040s. Those worried about Turkey leaving NATO soon may find reassurance in these developments.