In 2024, over 60 countries, with a population exceeding 4 billion people, are gearing up for national elections, potentially marking the most significant global democratic spectacle in human history. This unprecedented election surge might not be paralleled until 2048, indicating a potential shift in the world’s political landscape. The “third wave” of democracy, characterized by the steady global expansion of democratic governments following the end of the Cold War, has receded over the past decade. While elections continue, the underlying political culture appears to be undergoing a worldwide transformation.
In various societies, illiberal values and politicians endorsing them are on the rise, with many elected governments seemingly determined to undermine fundamental tenets of the democratic project. This includes challenges to press freedom, the independence of institutions such as the judiciary, and the fair competition ability of opposition parties against ruling establishments.
Freedom House, a Washington-based think tank monitoring democracy’s health, reports that global freedom declined for the 17th consecutive year in 2023. The organization’s annual report highlights a wave of coups ousting elected leaders in Africa and increasing threats to journalists’ rights in numerous countries. Additionally, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, a Sweden-based intergovernmental watchdog, notes in its annual report that democracy is contracting across every world region. The report indicates that 2022 marked a sixth consecutive year with more countries experiencing net democratic declines than improvements, projecting a similar trend for 2023.
The upcoming year’s outcomes in pivotal elections, notably in the United States, the world’s oldest democracy, and India, the world’s largest, may underscore a growing public appetite for norm-bending strongman rule. Elections in Mexico, the European Union, and Bangladesh, among others, are expected to showcase the increasing traction of nationalist and authoritarian politics. Maria Ressa, a prominent journalist and Nobel laureate from the Philippines, emphasized the democratic election of illiberal leaders during an address to the National Press Club in Washington, stating that the fate of democracy will be evident by the end of 2024.
Here’s a brief and non-exhaustive overview of some of the elections to watch in the coming months.
United States
The upcoming U.S. presidential cycle is expected to attract global attention. Despite facing increasing legal challenges, former President Donald Trump seems positioned to secure the Republican presidential nomination easily. He would then go on to compete against President Biden in the November presidential vote.
The unity within Trump’s party base is evident, with many lawmakers aligning themselves as staunch Trump loyalists or being cautious about jeopardizing their political futures by opposing him. A recent joint Washington Post-University of Maryland poll revealed that Republican voters are now more sympathetic to those who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, than they were almost three years ago. Additionally, over a third of Americans believe President Biden’s 2020 election win was illegitimate, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
From a historical standpoint, these findings are unsettling to many analysts, as noted by Michael J. Hanmer, the director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland. Trump’s promotion of the “big lie” surrounding the 2020 electoral fraud seems to resonate positively in political terms. This includes his commitment to seeking immediate retribution if elected against perceived enemies, ranging from Democratic lawmakers to undocumented migrants. Opinion polls among potential Iowa caucuses voters indicate that the prospect of locking up Trump’s political opponents makes nearly a fifth of respondents more likely to vote for him. This political climate also raises concerns about an elevated risk of political violence, with some Trump supporters openly expressing a willingness to take up arms in his name, as witnessed in 2021.
The repercussions of this toxic environment extend beyond the immediate political sphere. Democratic deliberation, compromise, and coalition-building have become more challenging, according to Britain’s Chatham House think tank. The failure of efforts to reduce income inequality, particularly evident in swing states, adds to the complexities unfolding in the context of the 2024 elections, as highlighted by the Federal Reserve’s recent Survey of Consumer Finances.
Europe
European politics is currently grappling with a pervasive sense of crisis as the far right continues to make inroads into the political mainstream. Fueled by public concerns about migration and stagnant economies, the far right’s influence may reach its zenith in the upcoming European Union (E.U.) parliamentary elections scheduled for June.
There is a legitimate possibility that the various factions of the far right could emerge as the single largest bloc, potentially altering the dynamics across Europe, as noted by John Kampfner in Foreign Policy. While this may not lead to a direct change in the composition of the European Commission, given that the mainstream groups still collectively hold a majority, any significant surge of extremist influence would undoubtedly impact the overall political landscape.
In the coming months, the far right is poised to secure power, either through coalition-building or by leading ruling blocs. Notably, this shift is anticipated in Portugal in March and Austria in June. Even in Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, the surging far-right movement could achieve unprecedented victories in several state elections.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party in Britain is grappling with internal challenges, particularly regarding its stance on migrants. In a bid to avert what appears to be an impending electoral defeat against the opposition Labour Party, led by political moderate Keir Starmer, the Conservatives have chosen to target migrants. The specific date for the vote is yet to be scheduled.
Bangladesh
India
In neighboring India, the upcoming national elections anticipated in April and May may witness Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalists consolidating their grip on power, particularly in the northern and central regions. A potential extension of Modi’s leadership for another five years could lead the Indian republic further away from its founding pluralist and secular principles.
South Africa
The enduring African National Congress, deeply rooted in South Africa’s history, confronts its most formidable challenge from the opposition in upcoming elections, the schedule for which is yet to be determined. Widespread voter disillusionment and discontent with the post-apartheid democratic system characterize the political landscape. A recent poll revealed that nearly three-quarters of South Africans would be willing to forgo their democracy if a leader could effectively address issues of unemployment and crime.
Other key elections
The dynamics vary in other regions: Indonesia’s February elections and Mexico’s June elections may witness outgoing presidents with term limits extending their influence through friendly successors, much to the consternation of rival political elites. In Pakistan, embroiled in a prolonged political crisis since the 2022 ouster and subsequent arrest of populist Prime Minister Imran Khan, efforts are underway to reset the political stage with February elections, though Khan’s faction remains incensed over alleged attempts to manipulate the voting process.
Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is anticipated to hold elections this year following negotiations with the beleaguered opposition; however, the fairness of the elections remains uncertain. In Ukraine, presidential elections scheduled for the end of March face potential postponement due to the ongoing emergency imposed by Russia’s invasion, as President Volodymyr Zelensky grapples with the crisis.
Meanwhile, Taiwan, in the midst of elections this month, anticipates a victory for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which could heighten the likelihood of Chinese military escalation over the straits—an aspect emphasized by the friendlier-toward-Beijing opposition Kuomintang. Regardless of the outcome, as noted by The Guardian’s Simon Tisdall, the vote “will provide a valuable demonstration of how highly democracy is still valued—when a determined people are allowed a real choice amid fierce external pressures.”