July 16, 2024 at 5:00 PM GMT
It’s late June, and Donald Trump is strategizing for his next presidential bid in the luxurious offseason seclusion of the Mar-a-Lago Club. While club members have migrated to cooler climates, Trump remains in high spirits. Polls indicate a close race between him and President Joe Biden, but Trump’s fundraising is robust. His 34 felony convictions have not disrupted the race. A major surprise will occur two days later at the first presidential debate, leaving Biden stunned, followed by a bigger shock on July 13 when Trump narrowly escapes an assassination attempt.
In a Bloomberg Businessweek feature for August 2024, the Mar-a-Lago sitting room is depicted with a towering red balloon arrangement adorned with gold “47” balloons, symbolizing Trump as the next president—a gift from an admirer. Trump proudly shows off a new fashion item: a red MAGA-style hat with “Trump Was Right About Everything.”
Outside Mar-a-Lago, concerns about a potential Trump presidency grow. Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays warn of higher inflation due to Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Major American companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm are apprehensive about the impact of further conflicts with China. European and Asian democracies worry about Trump’s isolationist tendencies and his relationships with leaders like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. While polls show Americans favor Trump’s economic management over Biden’s, many remain uncertain about what another Trump term would entail.
Trumponomics and Economic Strategy
In an extensive interview on business and the global economy, Trump outlines his plans if re-elected. He intends to let Jerome Powell complete his term as chair of the Federal Reserve, lasting through May 2026. Trump aims to reduce the corporate tax rate to as low as 15% and no longer plans to ban TikTok. He is considering JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon for Secretary of the Treasury. Trump dismisses concerns about his policies, asserting that “Trumponomics” means “low interest rates and taxes” and promises incentives to boost business. He advocates for increased oil drilling, reduced regulation, a tightened southern border, and tougher trade terms with both enemies and allies. Trump also plans to support the crypto industry and control Big Tech companies.
Despite the broad strokes of Trumponomics being similar to his first term, Trump emphasizes a newfound speed and efficiency in enacting his policies. He believes his deeper understanding of power and the importance of selecting the right personnel will be advantageous. Trump’s economic message is central to his campaign, with the Republican convention focusing on “wealth.” He bets that his unconventional agenda will attract enough swing state voters to secure victory, despite his controversial first term marked by personnel conflicts, policy shifts, and the January 6 insurrection.
Polling shows a shift of Black and Hispanic men toward the Republican Party due to high living costs. Biden struggles to highlight his economic achievements, such as low unemployment and rising wages, while facing concerns about his age. Trump’s potential win in November raises fears among Democratic leaders of losing control of the House, Senate, and White House.
Business Leaders and Corporate America
Corporate America is adjusting to the prospect of Trump’s return. Privately, many CEOs are apprehensive. On June 13, Trump met with top executives, including JPMorgan’s Dimon, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, in a Business Roundtable event. Despite past tensions, these leaders recognized the shifting power dynamics. Trump, sensitive to his standing among corporate leaders, vacillates between seeking their approval and asserting dominance. He recalls reminding executives of his 2017 corporate tax cut, promising further reductions, and acknowledging their support as a response to his polling lead.
The Republican business community, once eager to find a new standard-bearer, has seen candidates like Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Glenn Youngkin falter, leaving Trump as the frontrunner. Trump, known for holding grudges, insists he seeks no retribution but remains critical of figures like Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos.
Foreign Policy and Trade
Trump’s foreign policy approach challenges long-standing Republican support for free trade. He plans to increase tariffs on China and the European Union, drawing inspiration from President William McKinley. Trump’s transactional view of foreign policy focuses on personal negotiations with foreign leaders. He expresses skepticism about defending Taiwan from Chinese aggression and criticizes Taiwan for taking American chip businesses.
Trump’s stance on foreign policy could have global repercussions, potentially straining U.S. alliances. His approach emphasizes economic resentment and demands that countries like Taiwan pay for U.S. protection. As he campaigns for a return to the White House, Trump aims to leverage his understanding of power to reshape the U.S. economy and global relations.
Another factor driving his skepticism is what he regards as the practical difficulty of defending a small island on the other side of the globe. “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away,” he says. “It’s 68 miles away from China.” Abandoning the commitment to Taiwan would represent a dramatic shift in US foreign policy—as significant as halting support for Ukraine. But Trump sounds ready to radically alter the terms of these relationships.
Trump’s views on Saudi Arabia, however, are more favorable. He claims to have spoken with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud within the past six months, though he didn’t specify the details of their conversations. When asked if he worries that boosting US oil and gas production might upset the Saudis, Trump replies that he doesn’t think so, citing their personal rapport. “He likes me, I like him,” he says of the crown prince. “They’re always going to need protection… they’re not naturally protected.” He adds: “I’ll always protect them.”
Trump blames Biden and former President Barack Obama for weakening US relations with Saudi Arabia, suggesting they pushed the country towards China. “They’re not with us anymore,” he says. “They’re with China. But they don’t want to be with China. They want to be with us.”
There are also financial incentives for Trump to maintain a strong relationship with the Saudis. On July 1, the Trump Organization and DAR Global announced plans to build a Trump Tower and luxury hotel in Jeddah. Additionally, an investment fund founded by his son-in-law Jared Kushner has secured a $2 billion investment from the Saudi government’s wealth fund.
Western allies, now familiar with Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy, are preparing extensively for his possible return to the White House. Their strategies include increasing defense spending, transferring control of military aid for Ukraine to NATO, improving relationships with Trump’s advisers and affiliated think tanks, and engaging with Republican governors and thought leaders to understand his intentions. At a NATO summit in Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged allies to act quickly to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion instead of waiting for the election results in November.
Dan Caldwell, a policy adviser at the right-leaning think tank Defense Priorities, says it’s in Europe’s interest to “America-proof” their defense and to operate under the assumption that the US has other, more urgent national security priorities, along with domestic ones.
On Silicon Valley
During his presidency and afterward, Trump frequently targeted the US tech industry. Twitter (now X) was his preferred platform for expressing displeasure with companies such as Facebook, Google, and Twitter itself, before Elon Musk’s involvement. In 2020, he signed an executive order reducing legal protections for social media platforms under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, and his administration launched antitrust probes into Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google—actions continued and expanded under Biden.
Trump’s attacks on Big Tech have often served as leverage rather than firm policy stances. His central complaint was that tech companies were biased against conservatives—shadow-banning them, deplatforming them, and allegedly suppressing right-leaning sources in search results. Now, Trump focuses on a broader concern: that tech companies are harming children and contributing to a nationwide epidemic of suicides. “They have become too big, too powerful,” he argues. “They’re having a huge negative impact on, especially, young people.”
This stance might stem from Trump’s understanding of how public opinion can be shaped by televised drama. In a Senate hearing in February, Zuckerberg apologized to families who claimed social media abuse had driven their children to suicide, a moment Trump has leveraged for his campaign. “I don’t want them destroying our youth,” he says of social media companies. “You see what they’re doing—including, even, suicides.”
Despite this criticism, Trump also defends these platforms as essential defenses against Chinese technological supremacy. He respects US tech companies and doesn’t want foreign competitors to replace them. “I respect them greatly,” he insists of the companies he was just criticizing. “If you go after them very violently, you can destroy them. I don’t want to destroy them.”
At Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s exception to supporting US tech companies is TikTok. Discussing his recent embrace of the Chinese-owned social media platform, where he’s already popular, Trump notes that banning it would benefit a company and CEO he doesn’t wish to favor. “Now [that] I’m thinking about it, I’m for TikTok, because you need competition,” he says. “If you don’t have TikTok, you have Facebook and Instagram—and that’s, you know, that’s Zuckerberg.” He’s still upset about Facebook’s decision to bar him indefinitely after the January 6 attacks. “All of a sudden,” Trump complains, “I went from No. 1 to having nobody.”
His reversal on cryptocurrency follows a similar pattern. Previously critical of Bitcoin, calling it a “scam” and a “disaster waiting to happen,” Trump now supports the idea of cryptocurrencies being “made in the USA.” He frames this shift as a practical necessity. “If we don’t do it, China is going to figure it out, and China’s going to have it—or somebody else,” he says.
The crypto industry, spurned by the Democratic Party and eager for allies in Washington, has turned to Trump. “Thanks largely to the actions of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Biden administration has stumbled into becoming anti-crypto,” says Justin Slaughter, policy director at the crypto-focused investment firm Paradigm. Trump has moved to fill the void, promising to “stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto.” He has since raised money from Bitcoin miners at a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser and announced plans to “build a crypto army,” now accepting crypto contributions.
Some in Silicon Valley have learned that the best way to influence Trump is to appeal to him directly, as Tim Cook did. In 2019, Apple faced significant tariffs due to Trump’s trade war with China. Cook reached out to Trump, requesting a meeting, which Trump appreciated. Cook explained the negative impact of the tariffs on Apple’s business, and Trump agreed to help, provided Apple expanded domestic production. Four months later, Apple announced the construction of a campus in Austin, Texas.
Although Apple’s plans for the Austin campus were already in motion, the episode marked a positive for Trump and established Cook in a favorable position compared to Zuckerberg. It also provided a potential roadmap for how tech CEOs might navigate a second Trump term. “I found him to be a very good businessman,” Trump says of Cook.
On the Uncertain Future
Trump’s views on American businesses, the economy, and global issues have taken on new significance as the 2024 election approaches. Biden’s faltering debate performance on June 27 heightened concerns about his cognitive health and plunged the Democratic Party into crisis. This, coupled with Trump narrowly escaping an assassination attempt, has given Trump a measurable lead in many polls and a strong sense of political invincibility.
“The debate certainly had a big impact,” Trump says in a follow-up call on July 9, four days before the shooting. “A lot of the states are just starting now to come out, and it shows a very big swing.” Asked whether Biden should drop out of the race, Trump says, “That’s a decision he has to make. But I do think our country is in great danger whether he stays in or drops out.” On Vice President Kamala Harris, considered a likely alternative for the Democratic ticket, Trump says, “I don’t think it would make much difference. I would define her in a very similar [way] that I define him.” With months remaining before Election Day, the race dynamics could still change.
Even before Biden’s debate stumble, Trump appeared buoyed by his recent fortune. During the interview at Mar-a-Lago, Trump proudly mentioned that the club would increase its initiation fee from $700,000 to $1 million in October, with four new slots available—a sign of the increased value of proximity to the potential next president.
At the conclusion of the interview, Trump, ever boastful, offered Businessweek a new MAGA hat reading “Trump Was Right About Everything.” The offer was politely declined, leaving it up to the voters to decide.