Jul 27, 2024,01:07pm EDT
TOPLINE: Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a closely contested race about 100 days before the election.
KEY FACTS
- Wall Street Journal Poll: Harris trails Trump 47%-49%, within a margin of error of 3.1, indicating a tight race.
- HarrisX/Forbes Survey: An online survey of over 3,000 registered voters (margin of error 1.8) shows Harris trailing Trump 45% to 47%. Including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead narrows to 43% against Harris’s 42%, with Kennedy at 9% and 6% undecided.
- Favorability Ratings: 44% have a favorable view of Harris, equal to Trump’s favorability, with Biden at 39%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 36%, and Trump running mate JD Vance at 34%.
- 19th News/SurveyMonkey Poll: Trump leads Harris by one point, and 87% of Americans agree with Biden’s decision to end his campaign. More Americans think this decision will benefit the Democratic Party (45%) compared to the Republican Party (29%).
- Impact of Gender and Race: Americans are split on whether Harris’s gender will help or hurt her campaign. However, more believe her Black and Indian American heritage will be beneficial.
- New York Times/Siena Poll: Trump leads Harris by one point among likely voters and by two points among registered voters. Harris is gaining ground compared to Biden, who trailed Trump by six points earlier.
- Third-Party Matchup: Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters in a six-way race including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%).
- Democratic Enthusiasm: Nearly 80% of Democrat-leaning voters support Harris as the nominee, compared to 48% who supported Biden three weeks ago.
- Other Polls: Mixed results show Trump leading in four polls, while Harris leads in two. Polls consistently indicate Harris performs better against Trump compared to Biden.
- Mental Fitness: 56% of voters believe Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump and 22% for Biden.
SURPRISING FACT
- Voter Engagement: The New York Times/Siena poll indicates increased voter engagement following the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, with 64% now paying close attention to the race.
SWING STATE PERFORMANCE
- Emerson College Survey: Trump leads Harris by five or fewer points in four of five battleground states, with a tie in Wisconsin. Harris outperforms Biden in all five states.
TANGENT
- Pre-Biden Exit Polls: Prior to Biden’s exit, polls showed Trump leading both Biden and Harris, with Harris generally performing slightly better than Biden.
BIG NUMBER
- 1.9 Points: Trump’s lead over Harris in the Real Clear Politics polling average. This does not include the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. Trump led Biden by 3.1 points before Biden dropped out.
CONTRA
- Harris Honeymoon: Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicts a temporary boost in polls for Harris, referred to as a “Harris Honeymoon.”
KEY BACKGROUND
- Biden Drops Out: Biden ended his campaign following calls from within his party. He immediately endorsed Harris, who has quickly gained party support and is expected to be formally nominated in early August. A NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that 87% of respondents believe Biden made the right decision, with 41% thinking it increases the Democrats’ chances of winning in November.